Tag Archives: Texas Statewide candidates

Part 2: Lessons For Texas Democrats In Alabama’s Big Victory?

Y’all ready for this Two-Step?   Here’s Part 1 in case you missed it.

Along with strong support in the suburbs, The incredible surge of African-American voter turnout also proved to be a big boost for Jones.  Black voters showed up at historic levels to support the Democrat.

But the key here?  It wasn’t just turnout in the cities or the suburbs, but Alabama’s Black voters in rural counties also voted in force.  More on this from Van Newkirk of The Atlantic

Exit polls showed that black voters made a big splash. The Washington Post’s exit polls indicated that black voters would make up 28 percent of the voters, greater than their 26 percent share of the population, which would be a dramatic turnaround from previous statewide special elections in the South, including a special election for the Sixth District in Georgia, which saw black support for Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff dissipate on Election Day.

As the Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman noted on Twitter, turnout was particularly high in the counties with the largest black populations. In Greene County, a small area that is 80 percent black and that Martin Luther King Jr. frequented in his Poor People’s Campaign, the turnout reached 78 percent of that of 2016, an incredible mark given that special elections and midterms usually fall far short of general-election marks. Perry County, also an important mostly black site of voting-rights battles of old, turned out at 75 percent of 2016 levels. Dallas County, whose seat is the city of Selma, hit the 74 percent mark. And while the exact numbers aren’t in for all of the majority-black or heavily black counties, black voters appear to have favored Jones at rates close to or more than 90 percent.

It’s always an unsure proposition to play “identity politics”, but for a whole host of reasons, African-Americans have become one of the most reliable, most well-informed and most consistent voting blocks in the nation.  And by and large, they show up to vote for Democrats.  So it should be no surprise that if Black voter turnout is high, it spells trouble for most Republicans.  Remember all of those ultra-stringent Voter ID laws Texas (and Alabama) keep passing?  Yeah they’re aimed squarely at weakening the Black vote.

While the recent dogma for Texas Democrats has been to pour all of our resources into a precious few urban centers, 2018 offers an opportunity to branch out and reconnect with voters across the state.  As this week’s victory in Alabama shows, there’s no better place to start on this journey than with the state’s many rural black communities. Thanks to a strong, dedicated organizational network, much of the infrastructure is already in place to reach out to these communities.  But Democrats have to make the first move.  Especially for statewide candidates like those running for U.S. Senate, Governor or Lieutenant Governor, now is the time to build these connections and plan for a true statewide campaign.

In the interest of this issue, Texas Leftist has created a special graphic.  Using data from the 2016 US census estimate and compiled by the Texas Association of Counties’ County Information Program, the graphic shows counties which have an African-American population of 10 percent or higher.  Maps like this one could help to reveal additional opportunities for candidates, especially those looking to mount a statewide or State Senate election.  As you can see, there are many strong African-American communities in areas of rural Texas.

In Black:  Counties with African- American Populations of 20 percent or more…   Anderson, Bell, Bowie, Dallas, Falls, Fort Bend, Gregg, Harrison, Houston, Jefferson, Madison, Marion, Morris, Newton, Robertson, San Augustine, Walker and Waller.  
In Green:  Counties with African-American Populations of 15 percent to 19.99 percent… Angelina, Camp, Cass, Coryell, Freestone, Grimes, Harris, Jasper, Limestone, McLennan, Nacogdoches, Panola, Red River, Shelby, Smith, Tarrant and Washington. 
In Red:  Counties with African-American Populations of 10 percent to 14.99 percent… Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Cherokee, Childress, Colorado, Cottle, Denton, Ellis, Galveston, Jones, Kaufman, Lamar, Lee, Liberty, Matagorda, Mitchell, Navarro, Polk, Potter, San Jacinto, Titus, Tyler, Wharton and Wichita.  

 

With information like the above and in the previous post, Democrats and Progressives running for statewide office can better utilize their resources and construct a campaign that reaches beyond the traditional urban strongholds, to voters ready to carry their message forward.

Thankfully some candidates have already gotten the message.  El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourkewho is challenging Ted Cruz for Texas’ seat in the United States Senate, pledged back in April to visit every single one of the massive state’s 254 counties.  He’s off to an impressive start, having visited 155 counties as of last month.  But even in the case of his trailblazing campaign, information like the above may be of benefit.

So there you have it.  Even days before the new year, 2018 has already gotten very interesting for Texas Democrats.  Let’s hope the party can use the momentum to its advantage, and help create a better state for us all.

 

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Part 1: Lessons For Texas Democrats In Alabama’s Big Victory?

In a week filled with fast-moving political news, the Alabama victory of Senator- Elect is still the most fascinating out there.  In his stunning defeat of Republican Roy Moore, Doug Jones became the First Democrat to win a United States Senate election in 25 years.

In an off- off year election, this particular race has dominated the national media, in part because of Roy Moore’s many, many flaws as a candidate, not the least of which is his past filled with allegations of sexual harassment.  But even with that history factored in, the election of Democrat Jones in a state that Donald Trump won by a whopping 28 points just a year earlier indicates that the pendulum may be swinging in the Democrats’ favor for 2018.

Here’s what Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin of The New York Times noticed after the November 2017 elections in New Jersey and Virgina…

RICHMOND, Va. — The American suburbs appear to be in revolt against President Trump after a muscular coalition of college-educated voters and racial and ethnic minorities dealt the Republican Party a thumping rejection on Tuesday and propelled a diverse class of Democrats into office.

From the tax-obsessed suburbs of New York City to high-tech neighborhoods outside Seattle to the sprawling, polyglot developments of Fairfax and Prince William County, Va., voters shunned Republicans up and down the ballot in off-year elections. Leaders in both parties said the elections were an unmistakable alarm bell for Republicans ahead of the 2018 campaign, when the party’s grip on the House of Representatives may hinge on the socially moderate, multiethnic communities near major cities.

And just one month later in Alabama, similar trends seemed to bare out. A diverse coalition of suburban voters in Alabama’s 5 largest counties put Roy Moore over the top, and completely erased Trump’s massive margin of victory from 2016.

Interestingly enough, Texas voters have already shown movement in this direction.  As I’ve written in the past, a big sign post for Texas to ever be considered a Swing State is not only Democrats winning in urban counties, but when they also become competitive in the suburbs.  After years of reliable Republican wins in suburban counties, that streak finally ended in 2016.  Not only was Donald Trump beaten in urban counties like Harris (Houston), Dallas and El Paso, but the suburban county of Fort Bend also went for Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump won the state of Texas by 9 percentage points, the smallest margin of victory for a Republican presidential candidate since the Bill Clinton era, and nearly 6 percentage points below Mitt Romney’s 2012 Texas victory over Barack Obama.  So the lesson here?  As with the rest of the country, 2018 is the year for Texas Democrats to get back into the suburbs, win or lose.  While urban centers are still hugely important, Democrats cannot afford to leave our suburban friends out of the political conversation.

What else was interesting from the Alabama contest?

Stay tuned for Part 2!!  

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