Tag Archives: Texas Tribune

Operation Think Swing Texas 2018: At Long Last, We’re A-Swingin’!!!

Just before the 2014 Election, I wrote a post about how Texas was inching ever closer to Swing State status. Battleground Texas was hard at work, and as a result, Voter Registration had reached historic highs for a mid-term Election Cycle.  Then-Gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis was hard at work, especially in her home District of Tarrant County, while then- Lt. Gov. candidate Leticia Van de Putte was giving impressive stump speeches across the state.    Democrats were hopeful to at least see some Progress.
And then came Election Night.  Any hope from the surge in voter registrations quickly faded, as it was clear that all those new and infrequent voters just didn’t show up.  With voter participation at historically low levels, Republicans victory swept through the Lone Star State yet again.

But the path to Swing State status never actually changed.

Here’s some information from my 2012 post, the original “Operation Think Swing Texas”.  Notice that just 6 years ago, even Harris County was not nearly as dependably blue as we’ve seen in the last few cycles…
Tier 2 we’ll consider these “swing” counties. These flipped to vote for Obama by a smaller margin such as Harris (Houston), Jefferson (Beaumont) or Bexar (San Antonio). But you can also consider other counties that held for McCain, but by a rapidly decreasing margin… Hays, Fort Bend, Williamson and Nueces (Corpus Christi). Texas Democrats should work hard to keep Harris county in the blue and try to flip Hays, Williamson or Fort Bend. If one of those were to flip in 2012, it would mark the first time a substantial suburban county went blue. The impact of this could not be understated because it would show that Texas follows the same model as any other swing state… The cities become heavily Democratic, rural areas lean Republican, and the election battle is fought and won in the suburban counties.

It just took a bit longer than some may have expected, but at long last, Texas is finally stepping into Swing State territory.  After seeing an historic number of voters registered (step 1), and then followed up by impressive turnout (steps 2-1,000), the 2018 Texas Electorate has now finally proved a fertile ground for good Democratic candidates.  Thanks to turnout  which was nearly double that of the 2014 contest, any possibility of Republican statewide candidates winning by 20 percentage points was wholly eradicated.

Perhaps most telling were the dramatic shifts in voter preference for the big urban and suburban county populations.  Here’s more on that from Alexa Ura, Chris Essig and Darla Cameron of the Texas Tribune

Counties that haven’t voted for a Democrat in decades turned out for Beto O’Rourke in his unsuccessful bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, and he picked up enough support in ruby red Republican counties to force Cruz into single-digit wins.

It could all be a blip — a year of Democratic enthusiasm spurred by a shiny candidate or vitriol toward President Donald Trump. But with margins narrowing over time in some of the GOP’s longtime strongholds, Tuesday night’s results suggest that the Republican firewall in the suburbs could be cracking.

In Central Texas, O’Rourke broke the electoral status quo in Hays and Williamson counties, rapidly growing bedroom communities taking in new — likely liberal — residents from Austin.

Hays County, home to Texas State University, hadn’t voted for Democrats at the top of the ticket since 1992. But Republicans’ control of one of the fastest-growing counties in the country has been weakening for years. Last night’s results indicate the county is trending blue. It swung hard toward the Democrats, giving O’Rourke a 15.3 point margin and narrowly opting for Gov. Greg Abbott’s Democratic challenger Lupe Valdez despite the 9-point margin of victory Abbott claimed over Democrat Wendy Davis in 2014.

The flip to blue was less all-encompassing in Williamson County. O’Rourke claimed a 2.8 margin of victory, which was notable given how Republicans have long maintained a strong advantage there. Abbott easily held onto the county, but another statewide Republican — Attorney General Ken Paxton — lost there.

From Central Texas gaining blue ground, to the second time Fort Bend County managed to flip in Southeast Texas, to Tarrant County, for the first time in decades, joining the Light Blue club in North Texas… well, let’s just say the Cruz-O’Rourke map looked mighty similar to what Texas Leftist postulated 4 years prior…
Knowing that rural voters would continue to lean heavily Republican, and urban voters would become more Democratic, the fight for Texas would eventually come down to the suburban counties. 2018 proved that to be absolutely true. Beto won every single county that he would’ve needed to garner victory, he just didn’t win them by quite a large enough margin. With HIGHER VOTER TURNOUT in any number of the state’s largest counties, or simply closer margins in some of the suburban areas, Texas could easily be celebrating a Senator O’Rourke, an Attorney General Nelson, and even an Ag. Commissioner Olson. 
The answer, as always is HIGHER VOTER TURNOUT…
So no statewide races just yet, but some important victories just the same and encouraging movement for the future.  Welcome to Texas– Swing State style.

GOALS: Beto O’Rourke Visits all 254 Texas Counties

Texans are known for having quite a bit of pride in their state.  Most are quick to site the myriad of ways in which Texas is bigger and/or better than other areas.

While most of us know that the Lone Star State is BIG, very few of us can say that we’ve experienced the true size of Texas

But as David Yaffe-Bellany of the Texas Tribune reports, one politician just made some impressive news, and fulfilled an impressive campaign promise at the same time…

After tens of thousands of miles on the road, hundreds of town hall meetings and innumerable cups of coffee, U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke made the final stop on his much-ballyhooed tour of all 254 Texas counties on Saturday, visiting Gainesville in his continuing bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz this fall.

Over the last 15 months, O’Rourke’s county-by-county driving tour has taken him all over the state, from his hometown of El Paso on the Mexican border to Cooke County in the north, where he held a town hall on Saturday afternoon.

“Here we are in Gainesville, which, as the crow flies, might be the farthest point you can get from El Paso,” he said to laughter from a packed house in the historic Santa Fe train depot.

The tour represents more than just an expansive retail campaign across the largest state in mainland America. It also marks a dramatic deviation from the political playbook employed by the majority of Texas Democrats over the last two decades.

Running a true statewide campaign is a promise Beto O’Rourke made early on during the campaign, and as of this weekend, it is a promise kept.  The trek also marks an historic accomplishment for a statewide candidate.  Though O’Rourke and his team are not the first to have visited every Texas county during a statewide campaign, it is still a rather rare feat.  So as the first known campaign to complete such a feat in the 21st century and with copious social media documentation.

As the Tribune says, Beto’s strategy is a far cry from previous Democratic (or Republican) candidates.  Most Democrats have run their statewide campaigns by sticking to the “urban triangle” of Dallas-Ft. Worth, Austin, San Antonio and Houston with rarely a stop elsewhere.  As a result, the Democratic party has basically retreated to only these areas of the state.

But whatever the result come November, Beto O’Rourke has laid a new course which all Democrats, centrists and Progressives should be watching.  The only way to turn Texas’ political tide is to be competitive in every single county, and you can’t be competitive if you don’t show up.

Let’s hope the originality continues.

Hey Beto!!  Thanks for showing up.

Famed Karolyi Gymnastics Ranch Under Investigation By Texas Officials

For a state well known for highlighting its achievements, there’s no doubt that one sight near Huntsville was a definitive point of pride.  The famous Karolyi Ranch has been perhaps the most famous gymnastics training site on the planet for over 35 years.  Each Quadrennium, Texans would regularly watch news reports from the secluded ranch, featuring interviews from a group of young ladies destined to rule the summer Olympics.

But within that secluded space, Texans did not know the horrors which occurred away from the glare of the cameras.  In the wake of long-time USA Gymnastics Team Doctor Larry Nassar being sentenced to prison for the sexual molestation of nearly 200 girls, the ranch itself is now coming under heavy scrutiny.  Here’s more on that from Ayan Mittra and Emma Platoff of the Texas Tribune

Nearly a week after prominent USA Gymnastics doctor Larry Nassar was sentenced to prison for the sexual assault of several female gymnasts, Gov. Greg Abbott has asked the Texas Rangers to investigate misconduct allegations at the famed Karolyi Ranch, the U.S. Olympic training facility in southeast Texas, north of Houston, where Nassar treated athletes.

“The public statements made by athletes who previously trained at the Karolyi Ranch are gut-wrenching,” Abbott said in a statement Tuesday. “Those athletes, as well as all Texans, deserve to know that no stone is left unturned to ensure that the allegations are thoroughly vetted and the perpetrators and enablers of any such misconduct are brought to justice. The people of Texas demand, and the victims deserve, nothing less.”

The Governor is adding some major state resources to look into matters at the site.  As Cody Stark of the Huntsville Item reports, they may have reason for this thanks to the work of local officials that were getting close to filing charges…

Local charges are still a possibility for a disgraced sports medicine doctor who was sentenced to decades in prison this past week for sexually assaulting more than 100 female athletes over the years, some of which reportedly took place at the USA Gymnastics National Training Center in Walker County.

Sheriff Clint McRae said Friday that his office had an ongoing open investigation into alleged criminal activity by Larry Nassar at the Karolyi Ranch in southeast Walker County. He did not comment on specifics of the case.

“This is an open investigation, but I cannot comment any further on what type of investigation it is at this time,” McRae said last week. “We are gathering information in anticipation that more charges could be pending.”

As of last week, the United States Olympic Committee has officially ended all training activity at the ranch, and with famed coaches Bella and Marta Karolyi.  With now multiple investigations under way, more news is likely.

 

Beto O’Rourke Jumps Into 2018 Senate Race. Can He Win??

If you’re a Texas Democrat, it’s easy to say “we’ve been here before.”

Remember when Bill White was going to roll Rick Perry in 2010?  How about when Wendy Davis was going to sail into the Governor’s Office and “transform Texas” in 2014?  A polished, politically savvy Democrat is once again deciding to take a stab at the “red firewall” of Texas, and this time that politician is Beto O’Rourke, Congressman from El Paso who is challenging Ted Cruz for the United States Senate.

As Abby Livingston of the Texas Tribune reminds us, the odds O’Rourke aren’t just long, but may seem astronomical…

No Texas Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat in nearly thirty years or any statewide office since 1994. It is hard to find a political operative in Washington or back in Texas who would bet money – or professional credibility – on O’Rourke winning this race. 

But the El Paso Democrat is earnestly bullish that he will go to the Senate through a strategy of bringing retail politics to a state of 27 million people. 

He has no pollster and no consultants at this point, and said he has no interest in hiring operatives of that ilk. 

“Since 1988, when Lloyd Bentsen won re-election to the Senate, Democrats have spent close to a billion dollars on consultants and pollsters and experts and campaign wizards and have performed terribly,” he said.

So that’s where we are.  But eventually, the Lone Star State have to suspend disbelief and focus on where we are going.

Texas Democrats are caught in a chicken vs. egg scenario. If we don’t run strong candidates, we’ll never build the infrastructure needed to win a statewide office. If a good candidate is out there, we would rather see them run now than us continue to wait for the “right moment”.

A Ted Cruz victory isn’t as sure as we may think.  Many folks in his own party would like to see the Senator lose his seat, and he may soon be facing some primary challengers.  When it comes to his actual job of representing 27 million Texans, the esteemed Senator doesn’t have much of a record on which to run.  Heck, citizens are lucky just to see the person they’ve paid over 1 million dollars in salary host a town hall meeting where they can express their concerns.  If O’Rourke can improve on these two paltry statistics, he’s off to a good start.

But the Congressman from Texas’ 16th District has an impressive record and some policy goals that will grab the attention of many young voters. His vocal support for the legalization of marijuana has already proven positive among Millennials. His record in local government proves the ability to work across the aisle and actually earn results for the people of his district.

With such depressing results, it’s easy to write Texas off as a wasteland for Democrats. But the potential of this State to surprise should also not be underestimated. Thanks to Bernie Sanders, and (ironically) the election of Donald Trump, Texas Democrats are energized and ready for change in 2018.  If that same coalition were to unite, reignite and stay energized around a statewide Democratic candidate, it’s more than possible that they could win. Indeed, Mr. O’Rourke has a Herculean task ahead of him, but with an early start and unconventional campaign, he might just take Texas by storm.

 

 

 

Growing Support For Texas Medicaid Expansion?

Politicians tend to say a lot of things when on the campaign trail.  They make a barrage of promises to different audiences, trying to court voters at every turn.  The 2014 election was certainly no exception for Greg Abbott, who handily defeated Democratic challenger Wendy Davis just weeks ago.

But sometimes what is not said is just as important in politics.  After a resounding victory, Governor-Elect Abbott, who vowed on the campaign trail to never seek any form of healthcare expansion under the Affordable Care Act, has remained surprisingly silent on the issue as he prepares to lead the state.

Meanwhile the chorus of state leaders supporting a Texas solution to healthcare expansion continues to grow louder by the day, even among persons Abbott has hand-picked for the state’s top administrative offices.  Here’s more from the Texas Tribune

Gov.-elect Greg Abbott’s pick for Texas secretary of state voted for a local resolution last year endorsing the expansion of Medicaid — a central tenet of the federal Affordable Care Act that Abbott fiercely campaigned against.

In a phone interview, Carlos Cascos, a Republican judge from Cameron County, said that as secretary of state he was “not just going to go along to get along” with Abbott, and that on health care issues there would be “policy disagreement” among Republican officials.

Last year, when Cameron County officials endorsed expanding Medicaid, Cascos told NPR, “It’s contrary to what the leadership in Austin is recommending, but we thought it was important enough to take a position.”

On Thursday, Cascos qualified his support for extending Medicaid coverage to more than 1 million low-income Texans, saying, “At the time, I was looking at it from a local perspective in terms of the uninsured we have here in the [Rio Grande] Valley.”

Abbott’s very selection of Cascos seems to suggest that the opinions of RGV Republican leaders are important.  The Secretary Of State Designate’s opinons come on the heals support from another influential group, this time appointed by Governor Rick Perry.  Again, more from the Trib

A board of medical professionals appointed by Gov. Rick Perry said Wednesday that the state should provide health coverage to low-income Texans under the Affordable Care Act — a move the Republican-led Legislature has opposed.

The 15-member Texas Institute of Health Care Quality and Efficiency recommended that the state’s health commissioner be authorized to negotiate a Texas-specific agreement with the federal government to expand health coverage to the poor, “using available federal funds.”

“We’re trying to look at actions whereby more Texans can be covered,” said board chairman Steve Berkowitz, the president and founder 0f SMB Health Consulting. “We’re trying to take the politics out of it.”

As if advocates for Texas citizens themselves were not enough, don’t forget that Texas hospitals, tired of losing billions of dollars to uncompensated care costs, are also facing some tough choices if the state continues to ignore the situation.  This is exactly why the Texas Hospital Association also renewed its call for the legislature to find a Texas solution that helps them, and those seeking medical care.

For Abbott to remain silent when so many groups are speaking out is telling.  Is he listening to the bi-partisan coalition to help Texas families?  Will he change his position on the issue and allow our Texas tax dollars to come back where they belong?  Even if Abbott were to come out in support, what are the chances of finding support withing the legislature, or of Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick even bringing such an issue to the Senate floor?

The answers to all will be revealed soon, but for now, the best thing Texans can do is keep talking.  At least then, there is a small chance that our voices will be heard as well.

 

(photo credit:  Travel Trip Journey)

Texas Doesn’t Want Everyone To Vote

With the approaching apex of election season, debates over voting rights and procedures are certain to become vigorous.  Last week on Houston Matters with Craig Cohen, I even managed to enter the fray with fellow panelists Russ Capper and Lisa Falkenberg over the issue.  Russ stated that he is clearly in favor of Voter ID, while Lisa questioned the necessity of such laws when in person voter fraud doesn’t seem to be a problem.  You can listen to the segment here if you’d like.

The main point that I attempted on the show was this… If Texas really cared about implementing an effective Voter Law, then they would help people to vote instead of hindering them.

On the issue, I agree more with Lisa’s position.  There simply has not been sufficient evidence to prove that Voter impersonation is a problem. The cases of actual in person voter fraud are so miniscule that we’d have better proof to institute a ‘don’t climb on top of a lightning rod during a thunderstorm’ law to prevent people from getting struck by lightning.  This is a problem that simply doesn’t exist.

Be that as it may, I’m not in total opposition to Voter ID laws in concept.  But Texas’ law is specifically designed to disenfranchise certain groups of voters, while not providing sufficient resources to help them vote or obtain the proper ID.  Alice Speri of Vice News has more on what makes Texas law so restrictive…

The voter ID law is not just discriminatory, Martinez Fischer said — it’s also very short-sighted.

[…]

He called Texas’ voter law the “most stringent, harshest voter identification legislation in the country.”

To put that in perspective, Texas’s voter ID law is seen as being more strict than Alabama’s — the state that successfully challenged part of the Voting Rights Act before the Supreme Court.

“Alabama is not exactly a hotbed of liberalism, but even their voter ID law is much, much more lenient and permissive than Texas,” Singh said. “In Alabama, you can use a student ID card, or a government card. In Texas, you can’t use a University of Texas ID. A state employee in Texas is not able to use his state government ID card.”

So a student photo ID, or government employee ID cannot be used to vote, but a concealed carry permit can?  That’s nothing more than a veiled attempt to go after what the Republican Party assumes to be their “base voters” while making sure as many non-Republicans as possible get turned away, or are forced to cast a Provisional Ballot.

The only solution that Texas’ stringent law does provide is a new form of ID that can only be used for voting… the Election Identification Certificate, or EIC.  These special IDs are “free” to those that qualify for them, but the birth certificate that you have to purchase before obtaining the EIC is at a cost.  Another problem with the EIC system?  Most people don’t know where to obtain them, and the Secretary of State isn’t helping to change that.  But at least Democrats have noticed and are trying to broach the issue before election day.  Here’s more from the Texas Tribune

More than a week ago, Texas Senate Democrats put Texas Secretary of State Nandita Berry on notice: They wanted her office to get more mobile units on Texas streets to give voters without an acceptable photo ID a chance to get one before November’s election.

One week later, there’s been no movement to do so, says state Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin.

The problem, he says, is that there are not one but two state agencies in charge of putting more mobile units out in the community. The Secretary of State’s office (SOS), which includes voter registration, has to coordinate where the mobile units will go. The Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) actually owns the mobile units which can issue the new Texas election identification certificates, or EICs.

After trying to get the two entitites to agree on how to do it — and to do it quickly — Watson said late Tuesday that it “appears to me it is a breakdown on both ends.”

Under the state’s voter ID law, residents must present an acceptable form of photo identification for their vote to be counted. Acceptable photo IDs include Texas driver’s licenses or Texas ID cards that have not been expired for more than 60 days at the time of voting, U.S. passports, or military or U.S. citizenship certificates with photos.

Texas Republicans (more like TEApublicans… many don’t deserve to carry the label “Republican” anymore) have led the charge to adopt the nation’s most restrictive Voter ID law.  They do this because they know that having fewer people vote gives them a better chance at maintaining power and codifying their fringe-Right ideology. For those out there that truly consider themselves to be proud ‘Texas Republicans’, the the Voter ID law should give them pause over what their party stands for.

For Texas Democrats, this is all the more reason to prove them wrong in 2014.  If you haven’t volunteered to help get the word out about the changes to voting, please do so.  Try as they may, the Texas GOP cannot hold the state back forever. In 2014, let’s make sure that the TEApublicans get to see what Texas really looks like.

 

 

 

Rick Perry Indicted On Felony Abuse of Power Counts

Some shocking late breaking news tonight, as a Grand Jury has accused Texas Governor Rick Perry of abusing his Gubernatorial Powers. Here’s the story from the Texas Tribune

A grand jury indicted Gov. Rick Perry on Friday on two felony counts, alleging he abused his power by threatening to veto funding for the state’s anti-corruption prosecutors unless Travis County District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg, who had pleaded guilty to drunk driving, stepped down from office.

The first count returned from a grand jury, abuse of official capacity, is a first-degree felony with a potential penalty of five to 99 years in prison. The second count, coercion of a public servant, is a third-degree felony with a penalty of two to 10 years.

Perry’s legal counsel, Mary Ann Wiley, said Perry would vigorously fight the charges.

“The veto in question was made in accordance with the veto authority afforded to every governor under the Texas Constitution,” she said. “We will continue to aggressively defend the governor’s lawful and constitutional action, and believe we will ultimately prevail.”

Other than the pledge to fight the charges, the Governor has said very little of the issue himself thus far, instead letting his taxpayer-funded legal counsel speak on his behalf.

As one can imagine, the news has launched a complete frenzy among Texas Democrats. Within minutes of the official news wire, Democrat and left-leaning groups had blasted fundraising emails all over the planet.

Perry’s questionable actions are not about the specific situations here. No one will argue that the Governor of Texas has the ability to issue a line-item veto. He was also well within his power to make a public call for Lehmberg’s resignation, if that’s what he thought would be best for the Office of Public Integrity and the people of Texas. But the problem lies in Perry’s motivation to use that power. You cannot issue a threat to an individual and punish an entire responsibility of government for their actions. At least on it’s face, the Governor has never given any reason for why the entire OPI should be defunded other than his personal preference that Lehmberg leave her job.

There is much left to sort out here, but one thing is for sure… This is an historic event for the Lone Star State. Though probably not the type of history Rick Perry was wanting.

UPDATE: On Saturday August 16th, Governor Perry responded to the indictment, calling it a “farce” and promising to vigorously defend his decision.