Tag Archives: Justin Nelson

Operation Think Swing Texas 2018: At Long Last, We’re A-Swingin’!!!

Just before the 2014 Election, I wrote a post about how Texas was inching ever closer to Swing State status. Battleground Texas was hard at work, and as a result, Voter Registration had reached historic highs for a mid-term Election Cycle.  Then-Gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis was hard at work, especially in her home District of Tarrant County, while then- Lt. Gov. candidate Leticia Van de Putte was giving impressive stump speeches across the state.    Democrats were hopeful to at least see some Progress.
And then came Election Night.  Any hope from the surge in voter registrations quickly faded, as it was clear that all those new and infrequent voters just didn’t show up.  With voter participation at historically low levels, Republicans victory swept through the Lone Star State yet again.

But the path to Swing State status never actually changed.

Here’s some information from my 2012 post, the original “Operation Think Swing Texas”.  Notice that just 6 years ago, even Harris County was not nearly as dependably blue as we’ve seen in the last few cycles…
Tier 2 we’ll consider these “swing” counties. These flipped to vote for Obama by a smaller margin such as Harris (Houston), Jefferson (Beaumont) or Bexar (San Antonio). But you can also consider other counties that held for McCain, but by a rapidly decreasing margin… Hays, Fort Bend, Williamson and Nueces (Corpus Christi). Texas Democrats should work hard to keep Harris county in the blue and try to flip Hays, Williamson or Fort Bend. If one of those were to flip in 2012, it would mark the first time a substantial suburban county went blue. The impact of this could not be understated because it would show that Texas follows the same model as any other swing state… The cities become heavily Democratic, rural areas lean Republican, and the election battle is fought and won in the suburban counties.

It just took a bit longer than some may have expected, but at long last, Texas is finally stepping into Swing State territory.  After seeing an historic number of voters registered (step 1), and then followed up by impressive turnout (steps 2-1,000), the 2018 Texas Electorate has now finally proved a fertile ground for good Democratic candidates.  Thanks to turnout  which was nearly double that of the 2014 contest, any possibility of Republican statewide candidates winning by 20 percentage points was wholly eradicated.

Perhaps most telling were the dramatic shifts in voter preference for the big urban and suburban county populations.  Here’s more on that from Alexa Ura, Chris Essig and Darla Cameron of the Texas Tribune

Counties that haven’t voted for a Democrat in decades turned out for Beto O’Rourke in his unsuccessful bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, and he picked up enough support in ruby red Republican counties to force Cruz into single-digit wins.

It could all be a blip — a year of Democratic enthusiasm spurred by a shiny candidate or vitriol toward President Donald Trump. But with margins narrowing over time in some of the GOP’s longtime strongholds, Tuesday night’s results suggest that the Republican firewall in the suburbs could be cracking.

In Central Texas, O’Rourke broke the electoral status quo in Hays and Williamson counties, rapidly growing bedroom communities taking in new — likely liberal — residents from Austin.

Hays County, home to Texas State University, hadn’t voted for Democrats at the top of the ticket since 1992. But Republicans’ control of one of the fastest-growing counties in the country has been weakening for years. Last night’s results indicate the county is trending blue. It swung hard toward the Democrats, giving O’Rourke a 15.3 point margin and narrowly opting for Gov. Greg Abbott’s Democratic challenger Lupe Valdez despite the 9-point margin of victory Abbott claimed over Democrat Wendy Davis in 2014.

The flip to blue was less all-encompassing in Williamson County. O’Rourke claimed a 2.8 margin of victory, which was notable given how Republicans have long maintained a strong advantage there. Abbott easily held onto the county, but another statewide Republican — Attorney General Ken Paxton — lost there.

From Central Texas gaining blue ground, to the second time Fort Bend County managed to flip in Southeast Texas, to Tarrant County, for the first time in decades, joining the Light Blue club in North Texas… well, let’s just say the Cruz-O’Rourke map looked mighty similar to what Texas Leftist postulated 4 years prior…
Knowing that rural voters would continue to lean heavily Republican, and urban voters would become more Democratic, the fight for Texas would eventually come down to the suburban counties. 2018 proved that to be absolutely true. Beto won every single county that he would’ve needed to garner victory, he just didn’t win them by quite a large enough margin. With HIGHER VOTER TURNOUT in any number of the state’s largest counties, or simply closer margins in some of the suburban areas, Texas could easily be celebrating a Senator O’Rourke, an Attorney General Nelson, and even an Ag. Commissioner Olson. 
The answer, as always is HIGHER VOTER TURNOUT…
So no statewide races just yet, but some important victories just the same and encouraging movement for the future.  Welcome to Texas– Swing State style.

Texas Leftist 2018 Endorsements

After much consideration, and several requests from loyal readers, Texas Leftist has decided to issue endorsements for the 2018 Election.  And yes, this endorsement list is being compiled without having completed a general election questionnaire series, known as the TLCQ.  But knowing how important this list is to some readers, for one final time, I am happy to provide it.

Below is the full list of Texas Leftist endorsements for 2018.  I may follow up with more in depth posts for a few of the races.

Lastly… for so many reasons, the 2018 General Election is the most important vote that Texans will take in more than a generation… it could, indeed, be the most important vote of our lives.  Thank you for taking it seriously, and an incredible thank you for consulting Texas Leftist as you head to the polls.  Please encourage everyone that you know to do their research, and be sure to vote.  With an historic number of Texans registered, the final step is to make sure that we ALL show up.

Election Day 2018 is Tuesday November 6th, and Early Voting runs from October 22nd through November 2nd.  For Houston area voters, here’s early voting information for Harris CountyFort Bend CountyBrazoria CountyMontgomery Countyand Galveston County For other areas, visit the Texas Secretary of State’s Elections Page for your county information.

Federal Races

U.S. Senator:                                                    Beto O’Rourke (D)

U.S. Rep. District 2:                                      Todd Litton (D)

U.S. Rep. District 7:                                      Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D)

U.S. Rep. District 8:                                      Steven David (D)

U.S. Rep. District 9:                                      Al Green (D)

U.S. Rep. District 10:                                    Mike Siegel (D)

U.S. Rep. District 14:                                    Adrienne Bell (D)

U.S. Rep. District 18:                                    Sheila Jackson-Lee (D)

U.S. Rep. District 22:                                    Sri Preston Kulkarni (D)

U.S. Rep. District 29:                                    Sylvia R. Garcia (D)

U.S. Rep. District 14:                                    Dayna Steele (D)

 

Statewide Races

Governor:                                                                Lupe Valdez (D)

Lieutenant Governor:                                       Mike Collier (D)

Attorney General:                                               Justin Nelson (D)

Comptroller of Public Accounts:                Joi Chevalier (D)

Commissioner- General Land Office:      Miguel Suazo (D)

Commissioner of Agriculture:                     Kim Olson (D)

Railroad Commissioner:                                  Roman McAllen (D)

 

Justice, Supreme Court Place 2:                  Steven Kirkland (D)

Justice, Supreme Court Place 4:                  R. K. Sandill (D)

Justice, Supreme Court Place 6:                 Kathy Cheng (D)

Presiding Judge, Ct Criminal Appeals:    Maria T. Jackson (D)

Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 7:          Ramona Franklin (D)

 

State Legislative Races

State Senator, District 7:                                David Romero (D)

State Senator, District 15:                             John Whitmire (D)

State Senator, District 17:                             Rita Lucido (D)

 

State Rep. District 15:                                         Lorena Perez McGill (D)

State Rep. District 27:                                         NO ENDORSEMENT

State Rep. District 129:                                      Alexander Karjeker (D)

State Rep. District 130:                                      Fred Infortunio (D)

State Rep. District 131:                                      Alma Allen (D)

State Rep. District 132:                                      Gina Calanni (D)

State Rep. District 133:                                      Marty Schexnayder (D)

State Rep. District 138:                                       Adam Milasincic (D)

State Rep. District 144:                                       Mary Ann Perez (D)

State Rep. District 147:                                       Garnet Coleman (D)

State Rep. District 148:                                       Jessica Christina Farrar (D)

 

District Judicial Races

1st Court of Appeals, Place 6:                           Sarah Beth Landau (D)

1st Court of Appeals, Place 7:                           Julie Countiss (D)

1st Court of Appeals, Place 8:                            Richard Hightower (D)

1st Court of Appeals, Place 9:                           Peter Kelly (D)

14th Court of Appeals, Place 3:                         Jerry Zimmerer (D)

14th Court of Appeals, Place 4:                          Charles Spain (D)

14th Court of Appeals, Place 5:                          Frances Bourliot (D)

14th Court of Appeals, Place 6:                          Meagan Hassan (D)

14th Court of Appeals, Place 8:                          Margaret Poissant (D)

55th Judicial District:                                                Latosha Lewis Payne (D)

113th Judicial District:                                             Rabeea Collier (D)

157th Judicial District:                                             Tanya Garrison (D)

180th Judicial District:                                             DaSean Jones (D)

182nd Judicial District:                                            Danillo Lacayo (D)

184th Judicial District:                                             Abigail Anastasio (D)

190th Judicial District:                                             Beau Miller (D)

208th Judicial District:                                             Greg Glass (D)

209th Judicial District:                                 Brian Warren (D)

230th Judicial District:                                 Chris Morton (D)

232nd Judicial District:                                Josh Hill (D)

234th Judicial District:                                 Lauren Reeder (D)

246th Judicial District:                                 Angela Graves-Harrington (D)

263rd Judicial District:                                  Amy Martin

269th Judicial District:                                  Cory Sepolio (D)

295th Judicial District:                                   Donna Roth (D)

245th Family Judicial District:                    Tristan H. Longino (D)

247th Family Judicial District:                    Janice Berg (D)

248th Family Judicial District:                    Hilary Unger (D)

257th Family Judicial District:                    Sandra Peake (D)

280th Family Judicial District:                    Barbara J. Stadler (D)

308th Family Judicial District:                    Gloria Lopez  (D)

309th Family Judicial District:                    Linda Marie Dunson (D)

310th Family Judicial District:                    Sonya Heath (D)

311th Family Judicial District:                    Germaine Tanner (D)

312th Family Judicial District:                    Clinton “Chip” Wells (D)

314th Family Judicial District:                    Michelle Moore (D)

315th Family Judicial District:                    Leah Shapiro (D)

District Clerk:                                                         Marilyn Burgess (D)

 

Harris County Races

County Judge:                                                              Ed Emmett (R)

County Commissioner: Pct. 2:                           Adrian Garcia (D)

County Commissioner Pct. 4:                            Penny Shaw (D)

County Clerk                                                                Diane Trautman (D)

County Treasurer                                                     Dylan Osborne (D)

County Probate Court No. 1                             Jerry Simoneaux (D)

County Probate Court No. 4                             James S. Horwitz (D)

County School Trustee Pos. 3-AL:                  Richard Cantu (D)

County School Trustee Pos. 4-P.3:                  Andrea Duhon (D)

County School Trustee Pos. 6-P.1:                  Danyahel Norris (D)

 

Propositions

City of Houston Prop A                             FOR

City of Houston Prop B                             AGAINST (yes, a tough choice)

 

 

 

Texas Leftist has chosen to endorse candidates because they have demonstrated a commitment to advancing public policies that will improve the lives of Texans.  Though each person’s individual positions vary, they are generally candidates that stand for equality, social justice, healthcare expansion, living wage, economic prosperity and common-sense governance.

The following resources were also consulted for the 2018 Texas Leftist endorsements: Off The Kuff’s 2018 interview seriesDos CentavosHouston GLBT CaucusProject Vote SmartThe Texas TribuneThe Houston Chronicle Endorsements, The Dallas Morning News Endorsements,  The League of Women Voters Guide, The Longview News Journal and Ballotpedia.