Obama’s Diagnosis for Mitt: Romnesia!!

Fresh off his “New York comedy tour” yesterday (having sat down with The Daily Show host Jon Stewart, and later gave rousing comical remarks at the annual Al Smith dinner), President Obama was fired up and ready to roll at a Virginia campaign rally this morning. Not even minutes later, the campaign had this up on YouTube…

Now that we’re eighteen days out from the election, Mr. “Severly Conservative” wants you to think he was severly kidding about eveything he’s said over the last year.

He told folks he was the ideal candidate for the Tea Party. Now suddenly he’s saying ‘What, Who? Me?’

He’s changing so much… backtracking and sidestepping… We’ve got to name this condition he’s going through. I think it’s called ROMNESIA.

Mr. President… I think you might be right. Either way, we’ll find out the test results on November sixth!

Hole in the Polls? landlines vs cell phones

One thing that most analysts Right and Left can agree upon… the 2012 Presidential Election is expected to be CLOSE. It’s no surprise that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney continue to circulate around the same precious group of Swing States. And even if the candidates themselves aren’t watching the daily rollercoaster of electoral polling, their campaign staff are glued to their computer screens, ready to respond to even the slightest variance.

But what if the polls themselves aren’t as accurate as they seem? No, not because of some viscious plot to skew them towards one person or the other. It’s possible that polling just isn’t keeping up with the realities of the 21st century.

A 2010 Pew Research Study revealed that there is a big gap amongst landline respondents and cell phone-only respondents. It turns out that landline respondents are more likely to be Republican, while cell phone respondents are more likely to be Democrats. This makes sense in some ways… the Democratic party is on average much younger and more diverse than the Republican party, so it’s no surprise that fewer Democrats would own a landline or still use it as their primary form of telephone communication.

The study found that during the 2010 race, Republican House candidates led by a twelve-point margin nationally when the data only polled land-line users. But when combined with data from cell-phone users, that lead shrank to just six percentage points. This was from the very last set of polls conducted before the election results, and when the actual votes came in, the real lead for Republican candidates turned out to be just seven percentage points… much closer to the combined data. The GOP advantage was inflated due to a mis-match in polling methodologies.

Even after the results of this study were widely known, some polling agencies still continue to poll only landline users. They skip cell phones entirely when submitting their data. Rasmussen’s polling methodology still openly admits to focusing on landline calls, and polls ZERO cell phone users. The Gallup Poll is in transition to incorporate more cell phone respondents, and has recently come under hot water from the Obama administration for not doing so sooner.

So if this disparity persists in our national polling, what implications could it have for the Presidential race? Are cell phone users being under-polled? We’ll all know the answer in the days following the election.

Obama’s remaining task: Let’s Build Our House

Presidential debates bring so much hype, and so little actual information. After the second debate of 2012, accusations flew all over the room. But once again, neither candidate outlined a real path for the future. This is what the American people need to hear from both men, but most importantly from President Obama. After all, it is his job that is on the line.

Many Americans are still waiting for Obama to articulate his vision for the next four years, and it’s quite simple. Here’s my advice to him…

The economic foundation was laid. Despite the staggerring amount of obstruction lodged by the GOP, Obama’s leadership has led to economic improvement. Jobs are getting created again in this country… real jobs. President Obama has turned the corner for American factories and US exports are growing again, even to China. The three new Trade Deals Obama signed with Panama, South Korea and Columbia have created new, growing markets for American manufacturing. This is why we’re not shedding hundreds of thousands of jobs every month… because Americans are starting to make stuff.

The healthcare foundation was laid. No more waiting on the Supreme Court with bated breath, and no more tax money-wasting symbolic votes for repeal. This law, and the standards that it has set aren’t going away. Remember in 2009 when people were fighting about “death panels” and talking about ridiculous costs? None of that has come to fruition. Instead, 47 million American women are now saving money through free preventive services and products. They go to their same doctor, but the visits and mdedical supplies now costs less. That’s the “new normal” of the Affordable Care Act… more people going to the doctor, and less people waiting until ailments are so severe that they rush to the emergency room. Is it perfect? No, but again the foundation was laid.

The foriegn policy foundation was laid. Americans now have a renewed standing around the world, and are able to foster more diplomatic cooperation than ever before. President Obama’s leadership has ended one war in Iraq, which means more of our servicemen are back home with their friends and families. We have a clear path to end the war in Afghanistan as part of a coordinated, international effort. And lest we forget, our Military is safer today because all of our troops can serve without having to hide who they are.

President Obama didn’t achieve everything he sought to in a first term, but he did achieve a lot in a very divisive environment. But what he did… what we did was lay a foundation… a good solid foundation which we can build upon. Now is the time to invest in our nation’s workers through education programs. Sure, some low-skill jobs have left for China and aren’t coming back. Let’s train Americans on how to work in 21st century factories building 21st century goods. Let’s repair our crumbling infrastructure. Make sure that no child has to go to a school without working, dependable computer access and a safe school building. Make sure that our roads we drive on are not only repaired for today, but ready to handle the rapid population and trade growth they are experiencing from the North and South. Let’s connect our broadband and power grid to incorporate more alternative energy. We can do all of this and create real, AMERICAN jobs… ones that cannot be outsourced.

So in essence Mr. President, take some well-worn advice from Leonard Bernstein (alla Voltaire). We’ve laid our foundation. It’s time to build our house.

We’re neither pure, nor wise, nor good

We’ll do the best we know,

We’ll build our house and chop our wood

And make our garden grow.

Why we help the poor– from the Bible

The United States of America is a hugely diverse country. Every language, race and religion can be found here. It is also a place for us to celebrate these vast differences… whether one proclaims a certain religion or none at all. We have to respect one another. Even as the separation of Church and State is the respected and honored practice of the USA, it’s also important to look at our laws in context.

I know many people will not agree with my faith, but there are also many that do. That being said, I would like to share some Bible verses that have spoken to me… particularly as election day approaches.

Proverbs 22: 1-2, 8-9, 22-23

A good name is to be chosen rather than great riches, and favor is better than silver or gold. The rich and the poor have this in common: the Lord is the maker of them all. Whoever sows injustice will reap calamity, and the rod of anger will fail. Those who are generous are blessed, for they share their bread with the poor. Do not rob the poor because they are poor, or crush the afflicted at the gate; for the Lord pleads their cause and despoils of life those who despoil them.

James 2: 14-17

What good is it, brothers and sisters, if someone says he has faith but does not have works? Can that faith save him? If a brother or sister is poorly clothed and lacking in daily food, and one of you says to them, “Go in peace, be warmed and filled”, without giving them the things needed for the body, what good[b] is that? So also faith by itself, if it does not have works, is dead.

This year, we face a critical choice about the direction of our country. Many in the GOP have promised to decimate vital social programs that care for our nation’s poor, disabled and elderly. As with any government entity, these programs are imperfect, but is that a sufficient reason for them to be destroyed. If we get rid of things like MediCare and Social Security, where will these people turn? They aren’t able to work for themselves like the majority of the nation, but does that mean that they don’t have the right to live? Does that mean that we don’t have a responsibility to care for them? To care for US?

There are many organizations that help our poor outside of government… churches, food banks and non-profits. Their work is vital. But the fact remains that the need for our nation’s poor is too great for these groups to meet alone. The debt and deficit are important, but so is taking care of our people. We can do both… we can solve our nation’s fiscal issues without having to sacrifice the needs of the poor. We can do both, and we MUST do both.

The VP debate: “Who do you believe?”

With the conclusion of the Vice Presidential Debate, the national spin rooms have come out swinging. Clearly, it was a fast-moving, high-spirited affair. Unlike the first Presidential Debate of 2012, Both Vice President Joe Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan held their ground, and represented their opposing views well… for the most part.

Here’s my take. Sorry it’s so long, but this one was power-packed…

-1st impression: THANK YOU to Martha Raddatz for asking clear and direct questions. This is how it’s supposed to be done!

Joe Biden gave an honest answer on the Libya response… mourning the loss of the officials, admitting that Obama administration could have done better, but received conflicting reports from the intelligence community in real time.

Ryan’s criticism of how they handled the Libya incident is valid, so I give that point to him. But only due to the fact that he’s the challenger and had no real responsibility for the incident. B-FAIL.

So Ryan agrees that we should apologize for burning Korans, and for the film, but not for our values. So how would you make that distinction instead of just talking about it?? A bit of a tangled web there.

-Iran:

Ryan is critical of the Obama admin because they should have been more harsh on sanctions. He’s definitely studied up on Foreign Policy matters.

Obama policy is BAD. Umm… ok, but what would you do differently?

Joe Biden smiles every time he hears a disagreement, assertion or lie. I get it… for some people, that’s the only way to handle it.

He also points out that the sanctions aren’t just placed by the US, but a world cooperative effort. “So all this bluster I keep hearing, all this loose talk… What are they going to do… unless he’s talking about going to war.”

Ryan: “They see this administration trying to water down sanctions in Congress.” WHO DID THIS? WHEN DID THIS HAPPEN? Iran is “not changing their mind, we have to make them change their mind.” Umm, how??? No solutions, just criticism.

Biden comes back and defends sanctions. “This is a bunch of stuff”… is he going to curse during this debate?

Ryan: Thank heavens we have these sanctions in place, and because of these sanctions, Iran is 4 years closer to a nuclear weapon. So you either SUPPORT the sanctions, or you don’t. Which is it, and what would YOU do differently?? R-FAIL.

Ugh… Biden laughs a lot. It gets annoying because it’s read as not taking the debate seriously.

ECONOMY:

Wow Biden came out SWINGING with all of the buzz words “Romney said ‘let Detroit go bankrupt’, ’47 percent comment’ and ‘Grover Norquist pledges’… “They’re holding hostage the middle class tax cut.” INCREDIBLE

Ryan’s counter was WEAK. Ryan didn’t address anything that Joe Biden accused the GOP of. Now he’s re-legislating the GOP convention… trying to humanize Romney. Answer the question, and take on Biden’s assertions. R-FAIL.

Ryan on 47 percent: “The words that come out of your mouth don’t always come out the right way.”

Biden counters GOP Congressional obstruction head-on: “If they’d get out of the way and let us pass the middle class tax cut. If they’d get out of the way and let us pass the Jobs Bill. Stop talking and SHOW ME SOMETHING.” Very effective point to Biden.

Raddatz asks Ryan directly: “When could you get unemployment below 6 percent?” He doesn’t give a time frame. Ramble, ramble.

Ryan attacks Stimulus funds as “green pork”, and Biden CALLS HIM OUT for requesting Stimulus funds!! Biden: “This is such a ‘bad program’, but [Ryan] writes me a letter saying the Stimulus will create JOBS. R-FAIL.

MEDCARE:

Ryan did a good job on this, getting ahead of some of Biden’s points, but once again, he never even entertains the possibility of increased REVENUES. Not that I want to pay more taxes, but if it means that I’ll have a Medicare program, even I am willing to pay a little more. Stop demonizing taxes!!

Biden on Medicare: Calls out Ryan for his first budget, which did destroy MediCare. If that’s not your plan, then why did you create a budget that does it?

Martha calls Ryan on premium support, and he goes into some interesting detail, saying that he’ll ensure “100% MediCare for poor seniors by taxing/scraping benefits from wealthier seniors.” I guess he’s not aware that the income gap among Seniors is actually worse than the young, and has been decimated by savings losses in the Great Recession. Save for the Romneys and Warren Buffet, there won’t be many “wealthy seniors” left. Pie-in-the-sky economics here.

Biden is getting rude here, have to call it when I see it. B-FAIL. Thankfully, Ms. Raddatz is good at shutting it down.

TAXES:

Biden’s numbers got a bit confused. “800millionbillion dollars” Oh, boy. Thankfully though, he’s not meant to be the wonky one.

Ryan again, not explaining WHY the rich can’t afford to pay more in taxes, but tries to diffuse it into everyone’s spending. But he also points out rightfully that tax increases on the rich alone won’t make up for the deficit. That’s TRUE. Great line here… “Watch out middle class, the tax cut is coming to YOU”

Raddatz asks Ryan directly: “You have refused to offer specifics on how you pay for that 20% across-the-board tax cut. Do you have the specifics?” Ryan answers: “We want to have bi-partisan agreements.” She asks again. Ryan answers: Well here’s what Ronald Reagan did. You’ve got NOTHING. R-FAIL.

Ryan: “Jack Kennedy lowered taxes and increased growth”. Biden: “Oh, now you’re Jack Kennedy?” ZING!! Ok Ryan, stop trying to lecture Biden on what Congress does. He’s been in Congress since you were 2!!

Ryan made some interesting promises… now he wants to close the really big loopholes for high-income people? No home mortgage deduction for high-income people? I think he’ll regret that statement later.

DEFENSE:

Oh boy… Ryan call the cuts he VOTED for “devastating”. And of course, Biden calls him out on it. R-FAIL.

Ok Biden, you’re debating Paul Ryan, not Martha Raddatz. Don’t get testy with her. B-FAIL.

Ryan: “We agree with the administration on their 2014 transition.” But yet you keep arguing against the timeframe? Why?

Biden say we have trained Afghan troops, and it is their responsibility to take care of their nation. “We are leaving in 2014.” Nice, clear answer. Yet Paul Ryan continues to argue around the edges.

Ryan: “We don’t want to broadcast to our enemies” our departure date. Biden comes right back saying it’s not just the US involved… 49 other allies agree to the timeline. Granted, the US is invested FAR MORE than the other countries, but Ryan didn’t counter with this point.

Raddatz asks Biden directly: “Do you think the Taliban will take advantage of this timeline?” Biden says “Unless you set a timeline, the Afghan government will not step up.” Then cites Iraq as an example. Oh, that’s right… this administration as already ended one war!! Good job here.

SYRIA:

Biden accuses Ryan and Romney of “loose talk” on Syria, saying they’re too quick to threaten war. Ryan counters with shoulda woulda coulda, but doesn’t say what they’d actually DO. He also manages to diss the UN and Russia in one fell swoop. Ryan has been pretty solid on foreign policy so far, but this was a very careless answer.

Biden: “What would my friend do differently?” Raddatz asks “So what would Romney/Ryan do differently?” Then Ryan simply AGREES with Obama administration, with NO new ideas. Trying to sound tough, but no substance. R-FAIL

ABORTION:

Ryan: “I don’t see how a person can separate their public life and their faith.” He then clarifies that policy of Romney administration will be to oppose abortion WITH exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. This is news.

Biden: “With regard to abortion, I accept my church’s position… in my personal life. But I refuse to impose that on others. I do not believe that we have a right to tell women that they can’t control their body.” Biden also pins Ryan to his past record on trying to change abortion law through Congress.

Raddatz to Ryan: “If the Romney/Ryan ticket is elected, should those who believe abortion should remain legal be worried?” Ryan let’s out a HUMONGOUS sigh of despair. You can tell he did NOT want to defend the ticket on this!!! Here’s Ryan as he abandons his last shred of principle, and sells his soul to the political pundits…

“We don’t think that unelected judges should make this decision. That people through their elected representatives, and reaching a consensus through a Democratic society should make this determination.”

STOP. Please remember this answer, if you forget everything else from this debate. I believe this is going to haunt Ryan for the rest of his political career, and here’s why. As you already know, the Supreme Court, our highest court in the United States, is UNELECTED. Those unelected judges ruled on Roe V. Wade in the first place. If it’s not up to them to make a decision like Roe V. Wade, what else should unelected judges not be able to do? This answer was meant to make Ryan sound like he’s reasonable, but it’s acutally questioning the very core of the role of government.

ADVICE TO A HERO/ CAMPAIGN UGLINESS:

Biden talks about his son as a part of the 47 percent. It was a good summation of the Obama admin’s actions as well. Much better than his closing statement.

Ryan: “If you don’t have a good record to run on, then you paint your opponent as something to run from.” Of course, Mr. Ryan spent a lot of time running from his own record.

On Biden’s closing statements, find a camera!! Great way end with 47 percent comment though.

Ryan’s closing statement was at the camera, but mostly criticized Obama, and wasn’t very hopeful. “This is not what a recovery looks like.” Some will agree, but some won’t.

IN SUMMATION:

I genuinely thought both men did their jobs tonight. Paul Ryan stood up to a much older incumbent, and represented his views about as well as one could. He came out swinging and was able to take great advantage on the Libya incident. But what he couldn’t do was run away from his record. He did ask for Stimulus money after calling it “wasteful”. He did pursue Personhood amendments. He couldn’t name a single proposal for how he was going to cut tax rates by 20%… instead he said that they would look for bi-partisan solutions (as if that’s working now??).

Biden lost some style points, and there were a few times that got overly testy and combative. But he dominated this debate, and left Paul Ryan holding the bag for several parts of his Congressional record. And prhaps, most important to the Right-Wing portrayal of him, Biden never delivered a truly terrible gaffe for them to use to their advantage. He made his points, and backed them up with old-fashioned facts.

Final tally: Biden 3 Fails. Ryan 6 Fails. Advantage, BIDEN

Obama vs. Romney: The Internet campaigns

One thing that we sometimes forget about Mitt Romney… he’s actually been campaigning for the Presidency longer than Barack Obama has. Obama announced his candidacy on February 10th 2007, while Romney announced his 2008 campaign just 3 days later on February 13th 2007. Sure, Romney then withdrew from the race, while Obama went on to win, but the intention has always been clear.

Given this incredibly long game, it’s still quite surprising to me that Mitt Romney is so far behind Barack Obama in the numbers. I’m not talking poll numbers… but internet forces.

As of today, October 9th, here’s where the two campaigns stand…

Twitter Followers–

Romney: 1,334,802 Obama: 20,717,400

Facebook pages–

Romney: 8,735,870 Obama: 30,634,455

YouTube page subscribers–

Romney: 22,852 Obama: 237,120

YouTube video views–

Romney: 25,796,758 Obama: 240,764,291

And this is almost one full week after the first debate. It lets you know that debates are definitely more important for the challenger than they are the incumbent. But to Obama’s credit… his campaign has a much larger audience at any time day or night.

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