Daily Archives: November 21, 2012

Houston Politics

GOP shows no gratitude to Mitt Romney

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Nobody likes to lose. But one thing that Americans themselves despise more than losing? A sore loser. And after November 6th, it’s clear that we have very sore losers in both Mitt Romney and the GOP.

Granted, Mr. Romney’s recent comments about Obama giving “gifts” to his electorate in exchange for their vote is nothing short of offensive. Now that he’s finally untethered from the whims of his party, Mitt’s true character has been revealed for the world to see. But here’s the big “secret” that’s right in front of everyone’s face… This is THE Mitt Romney that the GOP elected!! Remember how he said “I’m not concerned about the very poor“? That was back in late January. And the infamous “47 percent” comment? He said that in May, but it wasn’t really on the national consciousness until September. But still the GOP rallied around him… the crowned him the leader of the party, and accepted him WITH ALL OF HIS FLAWS. Long story short, they bought in, and then sold him to the American people. One may be frustrated with Romney for being a sore loser, but folks, we knew he would be all along. You get what you vote for, right?

For the greater Republican Party on the other hand… the blazing speed with which they have turned to disown Mitt Romney is quite astonishing. Some are trying to quickly act like November 6th never happened and that he was never the nominee. They have disowned Romney at every public opportunity. Does that mean that they also want to disown their vote too? Did they forget that this guy was one night away from the Presidency a couple of weeks ago?

Here’s the greater problem… turning Mitt Romney into the new “Republican enemy number one” does nothing to solve systemic issues within the party. Romney was simply a symptom, he was not a cause for the GOP’s long history of problems. After living in a vast bubble of denial, the GOP finally must look in the mirror at a party that was built on malice and falsehoods. This party nearly tore apart between fringe religious fundamentalists and the well-funded but shrinking establishment. And in 2012, Mr. Romney stepped up to the plate and chose to lead them to an humbling defeat. In so many ways, they really should be thanking him saving a more critical member of the party agony and public embarassment of a 2012 loss. No matter what he says days after election, the party should be standing up for him, and finding a way to move forward with their own political aspirations.

Houston Politics

Operation Think Swing Texas: More Red in 2012?

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So the 2012 contest has come and gone. On this blog I predicted that Texas is a state that is in the midst of rapid changes, many of which were to be revealed in the 2012 elections. I, like many others, expected the state of Texas to become “more blue” in 2012.

So today, it’s time to admit that I was wrong. Texas did not become more blue in 2012… it became more red. Even as states across the country saw noticeable gains for Democrats, the Lone Star State lived up to its name and swung further to the Right. As an admittedly Left-leaning blog, it’s important to present facts as they bear out, and those are the facts of 2012. On the surface, it appears that Texas’ likelihood of becoming a Swing State, well, became less likely.

Texas Tribune columnist Ryan Murphy put together this interesting compilation map comparing the 2008 and 2012 elections. The map doesn’t show which side ultimately won a particular county, but only compares if the county voted more Democratic or more Republican than it did in 2008. If you’ll recall from my earlier post on the subject, the counties to watch are just a small group within the greater state area. So how did they fair?

Tier 1- the “reliably Democratic” counties: Three of them went more red in 2012- Dallas, Travis and El Paso. Three of them (all in the Rio Grande Valley) went more Blue in 2012- Webb, Hidalgo and Cameron. An important reminder here… Obama still won all of these counties, but Mitt Romney gained on John McCain’s 2008 vote total. The county where Republicans got the greatest gains? Travis county, which garnered 24,999 more GOP votes than in 2008.

Tier 2- the “Swing” counties: Six out of seven counties went more red in 2012- Harris, Bexar, Jefferson, Hays, Williamson and Fort Bend. The lone, and surprising standout was Nueces County (Corpus Christi) which, though still won by Mitt Romney, went more Democratic by 1,366 votes.

So these are our cold, hard facts. According to the voters that made their voices heard, the Texas of 2012 is more red than the Texas of 2008.

Now here’s the silver lining for Democrats and Liberals… the missing ingredient that Mr. Murphy fails to address? VOTER TURNOUT. 82,511 fewer Texans voted in 2012 than did in 2008. Now for a state the size of Texas, that’s not a huge number. But when you consider how rapidly the state is growing, it suggests that a whole lot of people sat out during the 2012 election.

Take the Liberal island of Travis county for example. The GOP got 24,999 votes in 2012 over 2008, but that was a larger share of a smaller pie (forgive me… tomorrow is Thanksgiving after all) as there were 11,124 fewer votes cast in Travis County. Yet there were 26,070 more registered voters than over 2008. Now is it fair to assume that all of those voters that sat out would have went for Obama? Of course not, but it would bear realism on the theory of an enthusiasm gap among Democrats, while many in the GOP were very anxious to vote.

Now in Harris county, we know this to be the case. Republicans were clearly more enthusisastic to vote than Democrats. Here’s how you can tell…

2008 was the first time Harris County has voted majority Democratic since 1964. Though it was by a slim margin of just 19,099 votes, the move was still a seismic shift for the county, whose population is almost equally split between the city of Houston and it’s close-in suburbs. Democrats made this happen through a huge two-fold push of registration and early voting. That’s what allowed them (well us) to best the well-funded Harris County GOP.

Unlike the immense bumbling we saw from Reince Priebus and the national GOP, Harris County Republicans watched and learned from the Democrats. In 2012, they vowed not to make the same mistake twice. Seeing great confusion from a state attempt at voter suppression, and already waning Democratic enthusiasm, the local GOP ceased the moment in 2012. They drove out their base to the polls, and made sure that they voted early. Early voting records set in 2008 were shattered in 2012, mostly thanks to a huge effort by Republicans, who cleared almost 100,000 more early votes on November 6th, and overtook the Democrat early voting machine by 11,651 votes.

So they spent huge sums of money, and organized more than ever before. And it STILL wasn’t enough to catch the Democrats in Harris County. Official totals show that President Obama bested Mitt Romney by 971 votes. Democrats may have slumped in early voting, but they turned out on Election Day.

The final kicker… overall turnout for Harris County was down from 2008… just under 1 percentage point, and 3,938 fewer Democrats voted. Meanwhile the gap between registered voters and those who showed up to the polls also increased by 34,474 which means in 2012, there were still 738,399 registered voters that didn’t vote. Some people forget that at 4.2 million people, Harris is actually larger than 3 battleground states! But the battle is definitely happening here.

To sum up… Texas Democrats may look at these numbers, see how “red” they’ve become, and get discouraged. But the battle is FAR from over in the Lone Star State. The key to swing state status is now as it has always been. Texas Democrats will win if overall voter participation increases. What we just saw in Harris County will be the new rules for the nation in 2014 and 2016. The GOP will re-group (as they should), and they will start appealing to a broader base. So for the Left, the key is to make every vote count. Keep up registration drives and continue to stress early voting. The very second we sit back and let the machine go idle, that’s when the GOP will make their move. Congrats on all the hard work Texas Democrats. Now let’s saddle up, and keep riding toward that blue sunset.