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Operation Think Swing Texas: More Red in 2012?

So the 2012 contest has come and gone. On this blog I predicted that Texas is a state that is in the midst of rapid changes, many of which were to be revealed in the 2012 elections. I, like many others, expected the state of Texas to become “more blue” in 2012.

So today, it’s time to admit that I was wrong. Texas did not become more blue in 2012… it became more red. Even as states across the country saw noticeable gains for Democrats, the Lone Star State lived up to its name and swung further to the Right. As an admittedly Left-leaning blog, it’s important to present facts as they bear out, and those are the facts of 2012. On the surface, it appears that Texas’ likelihood of becoming a Swing State, well, became less likely.

Texas Tribune columnist Ryan Murphy put together this interesting compilation map comparing the 2008 and 2012 elections. The map doesn’t show which side ultimately won a particular county, but only compares if the county voted more Democratic or more Republican than it did in 2008. If you’ll recall from my earlier post on the subject, the counties to watch are just a small group within the greater state area. So how did they fair?

Tier 1- the “reliably Democratic” counties: Three of them went more red in 2012- Dallas, Travis and El Paso. Three of them (all in the Rio Grande Valley) went more Blue in 2012- Webb, Hidalgo and Cameron. An important reminder here… Obama still won all of these counties, but Mitt Romney gained on John McCain’s 2008 vote total. The county where Republicans got the greatest gains? Travis county, which garnered 24,999 more GOP votes than in 2008.

Tier 2- the “Swing” counties: Six out of seven counties went more red in 2012- Harris, Bexar, Jefferson, Hays, Williamson and Fort Bend. The lone, and surprising standout was Nueces County (Corpus Christi) which, though still won by Mitt Romney, went more Democratic by 1,366 votes.

So these are our cold, hard facts. According to the voters that made their voices heard, the Texas of 2012 is more red than the Texas of 2008.

Now here’s the silver lining for Democrats and Liberals… the missing ingredient that Mr. Murphy fails to address? VOTER TURNOUT. 82,511 fewer Texans voted in 2012 than did in 2008. Now for a state the size of Texas, that’s not a huge number. But when you consider how rapidly the state is growing, it suggests that a whole lot of people sat out during the 2012 election.

Take the Liberal island of Travis county for example. The GOP got 24,999 votes in 2012 over 2008, but that was a larger share of a smaller pie (forgive me… tomorrow is Thanksgiving after all) as there were 11,124 fewer votes cast in Travis County. Yet there were 26,070 more registered voters than over 2008. Now is it fair to assume that all of those voters that sat out would have went for Obama? Of course not, but it would bear realism on the theory of an enthusiasm gap among Democrats, while many in the GOP were very anxious to vote.

Now in Harris county, we know this to be the case. Republicans were clearly more enthusisastic to vote than Democrats. Here’s how you can tell…

2008 was the first time Harris County has voted majority Democratic since 1964. Though it was by a slim margin of just 19,099 votes, the move was still a seismic shift for the county, whose population is almost equally split between the city of Houston and it’s close-in suburbs. Democrats made this happen through a huge two-fold push of registration and early voting. That’s what allowed them (well us) to best the well-funded Harris County GOP.

Unlike the immense bumbling we saw from Reince Priebus and the national GOP, Harris County Republicans watched and learned from the Democrats. In 2012, they vowed not to make the same mistake twice. Seeing great confusion from a state attempt at voter suppression, and already waning Democratic enthusiasm, the local GOP ceased the moment in 2012. They drove out their base to the polls, and made sure that they voted early. Early voting records set in 2008 were shattered in 2012, mostly thanks to a huge effort by Republicans, who cleared almost 100,000 more early votes on November 6th, and overtook the Democrat early voting machine by 11,651 votes.

So they spent huge sums of money, and organized more than ever before. And it STILL wasn’t enough to catch the Democrats in Harris County. Official totals show that President Obama bested Mitt Romney by 971 votes. Democrats may have slumped in early voting, but they turned out on Election Day.

The final kicker… overall turnout for Harris County was down from 2008… just under 1 percentage point, and 3,938 fewer Democrats voted. Meanwhile the gap between registered voters and those who showed up to the polls also increased by 34,474 which means in 2012, there were still 738,399 registered voters that didn’t vote. Some people forget that at 4.2 million people, Harris is actually larger than 3 battleground states! But the battle is definitely happening here.

To sum up… Texas Democrats may look at these numbers, see how “red” they’ve become, and get discouraged. But the battle is FAR from over in the Lone Star State. The key to swing state status is now as it has always been. Texas Democrats will win if overall voter participation increases. What we just saw in Harris County will be the new rules for the nation in 2014 and 2016. The GOP will re-group (as they should), and they will start appealing to a broader base. So for the Left, the key is to make every vote count. Keep up registration drives and continue to stress early voting. The very second we sit back and let the machine go idle, that’s when the GOP will make their move. Congrats on all the hard work Texas Democrats. Now let’s saddle up, and keep riding toward that blue sunset.

Operation Think Swing Texas

As Emily Cadik noted in a recent Burnt Orange Report article, Texas doesn’t vote. For the 2010 mid-term elections, the state of Texas had voter turnout of 36.1 percent… dead last in the nation. 2008 was better at 56.1 percent (as is expected for a Presidential election), but that still only ranked at 45th out of 50 in the US.

This isn’t exclusively a “big state” problem. Voter turnout in California is soaring, while New York in 2010 was one of the states lower than Texas. All three states also had Gubernatorial elections at the same time.

This also isn’t exclusively a “red state” problem. Some reliably Conservative states like Mississippi have consistently higher turnout than Texas, though it’s still below the national average.

Voter turnout is a Texas problem. Our voters are disengaged, and misinformed. As long as state campaigns and interest groups practice “uncertainty politics” it will continue to be this way. Besides voter apathy, Texans are plagued by signs that misdirect people to false voting locations, and incorrect times and dates of where to vote. And yes the current legal brawl over voter suppression makes the confusion this year higher than ever.

But just imagine if those voters were more informed and more engaged? Texas would easily be a swing state the like of which the US hasn’t seen. As Nathan Pippenger states in his recent article from The New Republic, Texas isn’t on the radar as a swing state. But Democrats, with all of their challenges can make this happen in 2012. Here’s my plan of how to turn Texas into a swing state.

Go micro.

Texas is huge, but when it comes to elections, it’s not as big as you think. 8 million Texans voted in the 2008 election, representing all 254 of the state’s counties. But as of the 2010 census, over half of all Texans live in just 13 of these counties, concentrated around the major urban areas. 12 of the 13 were “in play” for Democrats in 2008.

Prioritize.

2008 also saw a huge sea change in the state. Some counties went so heavily for Obama that they can now be considered “reliably Democrat-leaning”… El Paso, Travis (Austin), Dallas, Webb, Hidalgo and Cameron… along with other portions of the Rio Grande Valley. Let’s consider these counties as Tier 1 targets for Texas Democrats. Gains made in the 2008 election should be kept and defended. We should be making sure democratic candidates are well-represented in the local media markets, signs and volunteers. It’s critical that these counties remain in the blue category not only for 2012, but to strengthen current networking for future elections.

Tier 2 we’ll consider these “swing” counties. These flipped to vote for Obama by a smaller margin such as Harris (Houston), Jefferson (Beaumont) or Bexar (San Antonio). But you can also consider other counties that held for McCain, but by a rapidly decreasing margin… Hays, Fort Bend, Williamson and Nueces (Corpus Christi). Texas Democrats should work hard to keep Harris county in the blue and try to flip Hays, Williamson or Fort Bend. If one of those were to flip in 2012, it would mark the first time a substantial suburban county went blue. The impact of this could not be understated because it would show that Texas follows the same model as any other swing state… The cities become heavily Democratic, rural areas lean Republican, and the election battle is fought and won in the suburban counties.

So now we’ve taken the vast 254, and narrowed it down to just 12 counties. These also happen to be the state’s most populous areas. If Texas Democrats ever win all 12 of these counties, we are swing state, and possibly a BLUE state.

Turnout, turnout, turnout.

This is the really super hard part, but it can be done. The one thing we also know from 2008… Democrats like to vote early. If voters are well informed of the early and absentee voting practices of each county, they’ll be more likely to vote, and Democrats will have higher turnout. Here’s where the confusion and misinformation part becomes crucial. Certain political forces are hard at work in the state to make sure that lies persist about voting practices. Democrats should be waging all-scale war on these phonies, and getting into neighborhoods to correct and inform. If we push and publicize early voting, it gives people more options and better ability to get to the poles. Keep in mind that early voting is a relatively recent practice… elderly citizens may not understand what it is. They see the one election day, and think that’s the only time they can vote. We have to change this.

Rankings don’t lie. The non-voting population in Texas is staggering…

Fort Bend county… 300,403 registered; 205,931 voted; 94,472 didn’t vote

Travis county… 609,230 registered, 402,832 voted, 206,398 didn’t vote

Dallas county… 1,206,797 registered, 742,980 voted, 463,817 didn’t vote

Harris county… 1,892,656 registered; 1,188,731 voted; 703,925 didn’t vote

Seriously, the main game is moving to these 12 counties. In the 4 largest listed above, we know that 1.4 million people didn’t vote. Obama lost Texas by 940,000 votes. If Democrats focus on registration and information, this problem can be solved, and we can eradicate GOP majorities in these counties. As red as the state may look on paper, the real population and political power centers around the major urban areas. If we can maximize voter turnout in the 12 target counties, Democrats will win the state.

So fellow Leftists… who’s ready to Think SWING?