Tag Archives: Texas 2014 elections

Houston Politics

TexWatch 2014: Poll Shows Davis Inching Closer to Abbott

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As the Houston municipal elections draw to a close, it’s time to focus once again on statewide election developments. Save for serious breaking news, I’ve decided to do a new blog series to keep up with regular election news called TexWatch 2014.

For the first such update, we start with the big news in the Governor’s race. In a poll released by the Texas Tribune today, the race for Governor shows Democrat Wendy Davis inching closer to the Republican frontrunner Greg Abbott. The poll shows Abbott in the lead with 40 percent of to Davis’ 34 percent in a head-to-head matchup, with 25 percent undecided. When Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass was thrown in the mix, Abbott held at 40 percent, Davis inches up to 35 percent, and 20 percent remain in the undecided camp. Clearly this shows that Democrat Davis is still behind, but not nearly as much as she could be. It’s a big sign of encouragement for Texas Democrats as well, because it shows that when presented with a viable candidate, Democratic support is out there in the state. Keep in mind that in 2010, what some could call one the most right-leaning years of the century, under-funded Democrat Bill White still managed 42 percent of the vote in a light turnout election. This was in a blood-red year, and before the existence of groups like Battleground Texas.

Another important difference?? Wendy Davis has more time. Even with the passing of her father delaying an original announcement date, Davis is already solidly in the race a full two months before Bill White, whom announced his candidacy for Governor in December of 2009. Davis of course started out with better name ID than White, thanks to massive national exposure from her Filibuster of HB2. She’s also entered the game with a much improved Democratic funding apparatus. Given the 2 month advantage, Davis has the ability to far outpace Bill White in the fundraising arena. And again, with light turnout, White was able to garner 42 percent of the vote to Perry’s 55 percent.

Geography matters a whole lot in this too. Unlike White, who was from an already blue Harris County, Davis is from the last “urban Republican stronghold” Tarrant County. It currently holds the distinction of being the largest red county in the state of Texas. Only Tarrant and Nueces County remain as urban areas where Republicans won. Being Davis’ home and the epicenter of her campaign, she’s got a fantastic shot at winning Tarrant County, and would be expected to at least hold all of the urban counties that White claimed in 2010, and will probably win by greater percentages in each area. The urban counties are how Davis can go from the 42 percent baseline up to a 46 or 47 percent, putting her within striking distance of a win. But the only way for it to happen is through near historic turnout. Where Harris County netted a 16,000 gain for White in 2010, the net of Democratic voters has got to push near 100,000 for Davis. The good news though is this can get done by simply registering enough voters in low turnout areas. In 2008, over 700,000 registered voters in Harris County did not vote. If Democrats can focus on these and other urban centers, Davis really has a shot at being Texas’ next Governor.

Fellow Bloggers Texpatriate and Brains and Eggs have more.

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Putting the 2014 Ballot Together

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As the gravitational pull of the 2014 elections weighs ever closer upon Texas, the Republican party’s dominoes seem to be falling in line. Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott is off to pretty massive start, having well over $20 million dollars in the bank for his Gubernatorial campaign. But even all that money hasn’t bought Abbott a flawless start to his campaign, which is good news for Democrats. His only challenger thus far for the GOP Primaries is Tom Pauken.

Texpatriate has done a fantastic job of tracking how the 2014 ballot is shaping up. Here are the basics…

Lieutenant Governor (David Dewhurst) Candidates– David Dewhurst- GOP incumbent Lt. Governor, Jerry Patterson- GOP current Texas Land Commissioner, Todd Staples- GOP current Ag Commissioner, and Dan Patrick- GOP State Senator.

Attorney General (Greg Abbott) Candidates– Dan Branch- GOP State Rep, Barry Smitherman- GOP Railroad Commissioner, and Ken Paxton- GOP State Senator.

Comptroller (Susan Combs- GOP incumbent… retiring) Candidates– Glenn Hegar- GOP State Senator, Debra Medina- GOP/ Libertarian and 2010 Gubernatorial candidate, Raul Torres- GOP and former State Rep., and Mike Collier- Democrat and businessman. Harvey Hildebrand- GOP State Rep is also expected to run.

Land Commissioner (Jerry Patterson) Candidates– George P. Bush- GOP attorney and well named offspring, David Watts- GOP businessman, and John Cook- Democrat former El Paso mayor.

Agriculture Commissioner (Tood Staples) Candidates– Tommy Merritt- GOP former State Rep., Eric Opiela- Former Texas GOP chair, and Brandon Creighton- GOP State Rep.

Railroad Commission (Barry Smitherman- GOP incumbent… running for Lt. Gov.) Candidates– Stefani Carter- GOP State Rep, and Malachi Boyuls- GOP businessman.

With John Cook and Mike Collier (thanks for the tip PDiddie) being the only Democrats in the races thus far, it’s clear that the party is going to have to start far behind the gate. But hopefully not too much longer, as word of Wendy Davis’ decision of what to run for is expected as soon as this week.

Once that big announcement happens though, Texas Democrats have a lot of work to do to get candidates lined up for the remaining 6 statewide offices. Here are some other folks that I hope considering a run…

Joaquin Castro— Though his brother Julian may have pledged to be “Mayor of San Antonio through 2017”, the freshman United States Congressman has made no such pledge to stay in Washington. And given the complete lack of leadership within the House of Representatives, he may just decide that Austin is calling him back. After all he, unlike his brother, spent 10 years in the Texas House of Representatives, and has better name ID than virtually any other Democrat in the state. It would be a big shocker if he were to announce for Attorney General or Lieutenant Governor, and would change the game for Texas Democrats in 2014. Quite interesting how he’s managed to let his brother have so much of the national spotlight. And in the case of a statewide run, that could actually turn out to be a good thing.

Leticia Van De Putte— as Off the Kuff has mentioned, the State Senator is widely considered to be the Democratic frontrunner for the Lieutenant Governer’s race, but she could be a credible candidate for some other races as well. Davis and Van De Putte would be a substantial pair, with both significant name recognition and solid records in the State Senate. Once Davis decides, she’d likely be the next person Democrats will look to.

Ana Hernandez Luna— Another clear and present rising star, the State Representative from Houston is a talented organizer and understands the political game from every side. Hernandez Luna gained national attention for fighting the 2011 sanctuary cities’ bill. She shared her story of being born in Mexico, living as an illegal immigrant, and finally gaining US Citizenship. Her jump to a statewide office would likely help forge new energy among Texas Democrats.

Trey Martinez-Fischer— the State Representative has spearheaded several battles… both within the Legislature and legally against Attorney General Greg Abbott in the Texas Redistricting saga. The skilled politician is known to Texas Democrats as a true fighter, and a statewide office would allow him an even better platform to fight for Texans. His activism has even extended to President Obama, when he attended a private meeting at the White House about the Voting Rights Act.

It’s a risky proposition for any politician, but once they see the flood of money Davis brings in when she announces, I think some brave Texas Democrats will be willing to join the fray.

Texas Politics

Blue Texas: What the National Media is STILL missing

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Time to Turn Texas Blue?

It appears that my initial criticisms were a bit premature. Today, much of the news media has been dominated by the roll out of Battleground Texas… a grassroots initiative aimed at making Democrats competitive in the state. Founded by former OFA director Jeremy Bird, the new organization has promised to make a long-term commitment to Texas Democratic causes. Needless to say, this is one Texan that is impressed with today’s events.

But what is far from impressive is the continued mythology held by the national media regarding Texas. When I hear commentators on MSNBC talking about the state, it’s clear that they are NOT familiar with Texans or Texas politics in the same intimate way that they know Florida, Virginia or New York. Take the classic map that MSNBC’s Chuck Todd posted this morning on The Daily Rundown…

He correctly points out that since 2004, Dallas County and Harris County (Houston) have flipped from a Republican majority to a Democratic majority. But his map suggests that Travis County (Austin) is somehow a red county? No… actually Travis county has been majority Democratic since the 1990s!! If we’re going to have a discussion about how Democrats can advance in Texas, it’s critical that we start that discussion with an accurate picture of the state. In 2012, 4 of the state’s 5 largest counties voted blue, including Travis. It may seem like a small thing, but on a national show, it’s important to present factual information.

Another issue continues to pervade national media coverage is the sole focus on demographic (racial) shifts. It’s true that the state of Texas is majority-minority, but it’s also true that plenty of Hispanic voters (the ones that show up to vote) are solid Reopublicans. But Texas will not go blue on any single statistic, and there’s one HUGELY important fact that people do not cover enough.

Not only does Texas have a growing Hispanic and Asian population, but it also has a rapidly-growing URBAN population. The long-held stigma of Texas no longer holds true. The majority of Texans now live in the state’s core urban areas… Dallas- Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and El Paso. As the state continues to condense it’s population, it also takes on more characteristics of other large cities around the country. Millions of Americans have moved from all over the country thanks to continued Texas job growth, and as luck would have it, they are also bringing their political beliefs with them. And they’re mostly moving to the urban areas. Texas will not become blue by the growth of the Hispanic community alone. But if we can turn blue, it will be due to the confluence of rapid domestic migration AND changing racial demographics. These two trends have to move toward Democrats in tandem, along with an overal increase in voter participation. Groups like Battleground Texas and local organizations have to continue to expose the great travesties that Texans have suffered under Republican governance, like draconian cuts to our state’s education funding, and Governor Perry’s refusal to expand Medicaid.

Like the rest of the nation, the doors to a blue Texas continue to swing open thanks to the continued failings of the GOP. But if we’re going to get there, it is critical for Progressives and the Democratic Party to come to state, talk to voters, and get a better understanding for what’s really going on down here. I invite MSNBC to broadcast some shows from the great state of Texas. Come to cities like Austin and Houston, and meet some of your faithful audience members. Show the rest of the nation that when it comes to turning the state blue, Texas Progressives are ready to rodeo.