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Houston Politics

TexWatch 2014: Poll Shows Davis Inching Closer to Abbott

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As the Houston municipal elections draw to a close, it’s time to focus once again on statewide election developments. Save for serious breaking news, I’ve decided to do a new blog series to keep up with regular election news called TexWatch 2014.

For the first such update, we start with the big news in the Governor’s race. In a poll released by the Texas Tribune today, the race for Governor shows Democrat Wendy Davis inching closer to the Republican frontrunner Greg Abbott. The poll shows Abbott in the lead with 40 percent of to Davis’ 34 percent in a head-to-head matchup, with 25 percent undecided. When Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass was thrown in the mix, Abbott held at 40 percent, Davis inches up to 35 percent, and 20 percent remain in the undecided camp. Clearly this shows that Democrat Davis is still behind, but not nearly as much as she could be. It’s a big sign of encouragement for Texas Democrats as well, because it shows that when presented with a viable candidate, Democratic support is out there in the state. Keep in mind that in 2010, what some could call one the most right-leaning years of the century, under-funded Democrat Bill White still managed 42 percent of the vote in a light turnout election. This was in a blood-red year, and before the existence of groups like Battleground Texas.

Another important difference?? Wendy Davis has more time. Even with the passing of her father delaying an original announcement date, Davis is already solidly in the race a full two months before Bill White, whom announced his candidacy for Governor in December of 2009. Davis of course started out with better name ID than White, thanks to massive national exposure from her Filibuster of HB2. She’s also entered the game with a much improved Democratic funding apparatus. Given the 2 month advantage, Davis has the ability to far outpace Bill White in the fundraising arena. And again, with light turnout, White was able to garner 42 percent of the vote to Perry’s 55 percent.

Geography matters a whole lot in this too. Unlike White, who was from an already blue Harris County, Davis is from the last “urban Republican stronghold” Tarrant County. It currently holds the distinction of being the largest red county in the state of Texas. Only Tarrant and Nueces County remain as urban areas where Republicans won. Being Davis’ home and the epicenter of her campaign, she’s got a fantastic shot at winning Tarrant County, and would be expected to at least hold all of the urban counties that White claimed in 2010, and will probably win by greater percentages in each area. The urban counties are how Davis can go from the 42 percent baseline up to a 46 or 47 percent, putting her within striking distance of a win. But the only way for it to happen is through near historic turnout. Where Harris County netted a 16,000 gain for White in 2010, the net of Democratic voters has got to push near 100,000 for Davis. The good news though is this can get done by simply registering enough voters in low turnout areas. In 2008, over 700,000 registered voters in Harris County did not vote. If Democrats can focus on these and other urban centers, Davis really has a shot at being Texas’ next Governor.

Fellow Bloggers Texpatriate and Brains and Eggs have more.

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2014: How Texas Democrats Get There

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If you’re like most Democrats in Texas right now, you’re probably disappointed that the GOP were able to win this round of the battle for Women’s Rights. I don’t intend to make light of that fact… this law will be devastating to hundreds of thousands of Texas Women. 

But from a purely political aspect, I also hope that Democrats are a little proud to finally have some battle scars to show for the fight. Sufficient to say, it’s been a long time since the Texas Democratic Party has showed up in full force like they have over the last month. 

So here’s the burning question… How do Dems take what happened in June and July of 2013, and run it right through November of 2014? As we know, the only way to truly win the war is to win statewide, and take back the legislature. 

Here are my thoughts on how to get it done. 

The GOP have become masters of misinformation. They perfect the rhetoric of “conviction” and “moral values” while painting Democrats as scum for trying to be realists. They spend a lot of time and money to craft a compelling narrative, while Democrats try to do this little thing called GOVERNING after the election is over. 

But what Democrats need to do is raise some hell… steal the GOP’s thunder a bit. And unlike years past, Texas Democrats have a plethora of issues to bludgeon them with right now. 

If I were Wendy Davis, Kirk Watson, Marc Veasey or anyone else trying to run statewide, I’d milk this bus tour stuff for all it’s worth. The next place you go? Schools. Go back and interview school teachers about what they’ve had to endure under Perrystan’s (Abbottstan’s?) budget cuts, and then convince voters that even with SOME restoration, it’s just not enough to keep up with the MASSIVE growth of the state’s educational needs. This is perfect for August or September.

After that? You launch ANOTHER bus tour in later 2013… maybe Flu season? Go across the state to ERs and talk to hospitals overloaded with uninsured patients. Rail against the Texas GOP for turning down the money that could go to help these folks get insurance through MediCaid expansion. Doctors and hospitals are already upset, so it would be pretty easy to get them to express that frustration on camera and for future Democratic ads. I’d call it the “CrisisCaid Bus Tour.” 

By the time those two things are done, you’ve managed to keep the base ginned up, registering voters, and have plenty of funding built up between Battleground Texas and the State Party organizations… taking Democrats into the “home stretch”– the actual 2014 campaign season. It’s a play right out of the GOP’s play book, and that’s why I know it would work. 

Lastly, Texas Democrats need to spend a little time on YouTube, and look up this guy they used to know… Someone by the name of William Jefferson CLINTON. Nowadays, it just seems that the Democratic Party is ashamed of the South, and really has no idea how to communicate with Southern voters. Even in Texas, we all look up to Ann Richards as our guiding light back to statewide office. So why are we following her in the dark? Listen to her SPEECHES. Notice that neither she nor Bill ever back down from a fight with the GOP, no matter how ridiculous it may seem to be. LISTEN to how she and Clinton talk… how they are able to argue the case not for “big government” but for effective government. It’s a message that has been lost to the Democratic Party, but it’s one that can win in Texas if properly revived.